Saturday, February 13, 2010

A more sober assessment of the European declaration on Greece a couple of days ago may lead one to the conclusion that Merkel's position of refusing immediate financial aid was the right one after all. She did state that Greece would not stand alone, and this, as the Frankfurter Allgemeine noted, may be plausibly construed as a pledge for future last-ditch assistance when things come to a head next April.

That Greece cannot be allowed to default is, to my mind, a shared understanding behind the scenes. That would be a tsunami of colossal proportions, sweeping away the Euro and much else besides. The markets, beginning Monday, will of course call the European bluff, to see if it is a bluff. The Euro will weaken in the short term, but this is not either an unexpected or an unwanted thing, least of all by the German export-led economy. The Greek spreads will also rise.

But if, on a clear-headed reading, it becomes obvious to all players that should an endgame situation arise, then the bailout will be forthcoming, then those betting against Europe at the moment may yet get their fingers burned. This decision can wait for another month, so Merkel may have been just right in opposing Sarkozy's drive for an immediate rescue package. The Frankfurter Allgemeine again called her firm stance a "victory of reason". That's a bit saccharine. It may have been a victory for Germany's best interest, and secondarily for the best interest of everyone involved. The French view of the Euro has always been political, rather than strictly monetary -and there is something to be said about that. But this a long term proposition, involving the inevitable move in the direction of a political federation which is even right now bruited about under Rompuy's neat formula of a common "economic government". For the time being, however, the paramount goal is to secure that the Euro remains a hard currency, without it beginning to melt like Dali's clocks and watches. It is in this sense that Angela's hardness is tied up with the hardness of the common currency itself, thus performing good service for the European idea.

With respect to Greece it has to be made clear and understood beyond any doubt by the ruling class here, as well as by the people at large who have been misled and corrupted through the antics of the said criminal syndicate, that the rescue is going to be proffered under draconian conditions. There is no doubt that part of Merkel's strategy was to take the supervision of the Greek fiscal situation away from the feckless Barroso and his coterie of happy-go-lucky commissioners doing their somersaults in their ideological and nationalist clouds, and into the hands of the ECB and the IMF. This in practice means running Greece from Frankfurt (with Washington crucially involved from the sidelines). This is, as I have written before, a salutary development for the country. In the long run it is going to result in a much healthier situation here both in terms of economic growth and economic equality. But before this transpires the extremely unpleasant purgatives will have to be gulped down, so that the deadly toxins now rampant in the system are cleared away.

These toxins, let it be said, include specific individuals and groups of individuals who led -in full knowledge of what they were doing- the present descent to hell.

In his statement yesterday the Greek prime minister accepted as an unavoidable fact the ceding of "national sovereignty" in the economic area as well as the harsh restructuring measures that it implies. But he coupled this admission with a lot of grumbling about the failures of Europe herself as well as the malicious actions of "speculators". This smacks like an attempt to shift the blame for the hideous mess on to others, a standard practice by the media, the political parties and the average coffee shop philosopher here. Let us hope that this outburst was for domestic consumption alone.

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