Thursday, February 11, 2010

If you want to change driving from the right to the left you do it at once and completely.

If the decision has "in principle" been made to rescue Greece from bankruptcy, it had better be announced openly and frankly with the full complement of financial details so that the markets know exactly who is going to put their hand in their pockets and how. Unfortunately the statement in Brussels this afternoon seems to have fallen short of that. It was a mere declaration of political and moral support, but these days this will not buy you a cup of tea. Disappointing was also the claim that Greece itself had not asked for the disbursement of any funds and that her partners were confident that the government's austerity measures were going to work. This is just pusillanimous evasion and reinforces the image of the EU as a three-headed monster (Rompuy, Barroso, Zapatero) that cannot put one foot in front of the other.

The facts are stark and they had better be faced unequivocally: the country is insolvent and to wait till April for her next attempt to borrow on the open market will simply multiply the costs of the eventual rescue which is unavoidable anyway. Merkel is, understandably, huffing and puffing, but in this manner she is shooting herself in the foot. This is illogical for the additional reason that, as the wires report, behind the scenes the concrete details of the operation have indeed been roughly worked out. She is protesting too much in defense of a notional virginity which has been forfeited long ago. She'd better come out of the closet, and brush aside the rivalry with her liberal partners in government. That Germany will pay a significant price for the action that she will be forced to take is unavoidable. The Greek insanity will contaminate the sound economic core of the union without doubt. Germany's own spreads, ironically, will rise after the rescue: in other words the difference in interest rates between the German Bunds as they trade today and as they will trade after the deal is sealed and revealed. But if you do it now the contamination will be checked at a low level.

So one might hope that even by the end of today the European meeting will come out with something more tangible than the vague solidarity of a few hours ago. Nobody believes, and especially those living within the country, that the current political establishment here will muster the will and the competence to do anything significant in terms of economic restructuring and budgetary restraint. The gesturing and the outbursts against the speculators, that we heard from the prime minister again this afternoon, is a transparent smokescreen.

There is certainly a huge question of moral hazard -the Germans are right on that. The profligate Greek ruling classes, having wasted and stolen the European billions heaped upon them since 1981, have resorted to a desperate blackmail: either you bail us out, or we all go down. This is infuriating and unacceptable from the point of view of the German working class who has had to shoulder the immense burden of unification. But that could be and was swallowed on obvious historical grounds. What sticks to the gullet is subsidizing the obscene lifestyle of some Mediterranean "beach bums", as a writer in the London Times expresses it today. Not all Greeks are bums of this sort, obviously. But the top segment of this dysfunctional society, together with their ruthless and worthless hangers on, are exactly that, and it is indeed a shame that as T. Michas wrote in the Wall Street Journal yesterday they will get away with their serial criminality with a mild slap on the wrist. And yet the alternative would be a much greater catastrophe, namely the derailing of the European project. If the moral deficit of the present situation is not incurred, the prospective moral disaster of returning to a Europe of narrow national egoisms will be immeasurably greater.

But there is still something that can be done to mitigate the bending of the rules involved in the Greek rescue, namely stringent and inescapable conditions of audit and control on the actions of the Greek ruling elites that will make sure that there is no relapse to past prodigality. It would be a moral calamity immensely greater than succumbing to the present blackmail if, after a period of relief following the bailout, eyes were turned away and the authors of this shambles were allowed stealthily to return to their execrable habits and practices.

For this to be avoided, of course, the country will have to cede sovereignty in the economic field -and indeed this is the direction that things seem to be taking. This will be a boon for the average working Greek who has been bled dry under the pretext of a "social state" managed by ruthless vultures. To tie the hands of the local kleptocrats would eventually result in a much more humane, equal and just social setup -despite the shame of being forced from the outside to do the right thing that you cannot bring yourself to doing.

The necessity of eradicating the depravity of the local ruling elites for the sake of the idea of a strong united Europe will also force upon the rather flaccid and prevaricating bureaucrats in Brussels the choice of moving in the direction of political as well as economic integration -yes, let's not be coy about it, in the direction of a federal European state.

This cannot be avoided. The present half-way house of a common currency and twenty different economic and national policies cannot be continued, what with the disastrous charade of the Giscard constitutional project, the infuriating antics of the Polish twins and the latest stranglehold exerted by the Czech president on the Lisbon charter. This is a Marx brothers night at the opera situation. The Greek political personnel, incidentally, cannot complain if such a course robs them of wiggle room for their evil shenanigans for, rhetorically, they have been -believe it or not- the most vocal proponents of a united states of Europe!!! Now, under conditions that their very stupidity has brought about, they will be forced to put their money where their mouth was.

So, this is a great opportunity for Greece and for Europe to clear the Augean stables and emerge purified from the present debacle. Greece, as has been said, has only been the canary in the mine (a predicament certainly that it brought on itself). The fortunate thing is that the Greek people themselves have finally realized the gravity of their situation, acquiring consciousness of the necessity to abandon the suicidal mentalities and practices that their leaders coaxed them in in order to enrich themselves at the people's expense.

Huge majorities support the austerity measures and condemn the Neanderthal "militancy" of the blockading farmers and the civil service unions. The latter in particular have no moral standing in the eyes of the underprivileged masses, who know them for the fat-ass drones that they are. The strikes yesterday were a dud - as I can personally attest. They made for striking pictures in the international press, but they were a minority affair. That the communist party can bring ten thousand people out beating drums and paralyzing traffic downtown is no big deal. Besides, it is actually very fortunate that the unavoidable dissatisfaction with the drastic belt-tightening necessary is channeled through the communist party, rather than the looting and burning crowd of hooligans calling themselves "anarchists". The CP, despite its ideological blindness, is a conservative party, thoroughly integrated into the system, subsidized by the government budget and profiting from an extensive network of private businesses. Its adherents, moreover, are decent working people. Their protests, though misguided, are a normal sign of democratic life.

So, if one takes a long term view there is actually reason for subdued optimism. We may not live to see a much better day, but our children probably will -if everybody somehow avoids screwing up in the present juncture.

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